Busch reigns supreme at MIS

Autoracing Betting Lines

08/21/2007 - Brooklyn, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After two days of rain delays, Kurt Busch captured Tuesday's 3M Performance 400 at the Michigan International Speedway. The No.2 Penske Racing Dodge crossed the finish line 0.496 seconds ahead of Martin Truex Jr.

The victory was Busch's second of the season and 17th of his Nextel Cup career.

"It feels great to do it in the backyard of the manufacturers," said Busch. "We made some adjustments...Pat Tryson (crew chief), he's awesome. Thanks to everybody that's part of this race team."

The race began under yellow caution flag conditions because although the rain had stopped there was fog around the track. By lap 10 the race was red-flagged because the fog was so thick that the spotters couldn't see the track. Finally, on lap 13 the green flag dropped and the real racing began.

Greg Biffle went right around the outside of Jeff Gordon for the lead on the first green-flag lap and led through the first round of pit stops. Biffle's Roush Fenway Racing teammates were also on the move and both Carl Edwards (started 13th) and Matt Kenseth (started 21st) were inside the top-10.

On the stop, Gordon took only two tires to come out first, while Biffle came out third, behind Denny Hamlin as well.

The two-tire experiment seemed to work for the No.24 Chevy as he built a lead of more than one second by lap 40. However, as the green-flag run lengthened, Gordon began to fade back into the clutches of the field, now led by Jimmie Johnson. Johnson caught and passed Gordon on lap 49. A couple of laps later Kenseth and Brian Vickers also passed Gordon, so while the two-tire experiment worked for a time, it had only limited value.

Gordon continued to fall off, dropping seven seconds off the pace as the field neared the 60-lap mark. Johnson, Kenseth and Vickers were putting up fast laps and were more than three seconds ahead of fourth-place Busch and Edwards.

The three leaders exchanged the lead over the next few laps and their side-by- side "dogfight" allowed Busch to join the fray.

A round of green-flag pit stops began around lap 69 with Gordon one of the first to stop. This time he got four tires and fuel and away he went. When the stops were completed, Kenseth owned a two-second margin on Busch and Gordon was stuck back in 11th place.

Busch was trying to keep up with Kenseth, cutting the gap to 1.5 seconds, but he couldn't close up any further. The man on the move as they approached lap 90 was Dale Earnhardt Jr., who started last after a transmission problem, but cracked the top-10.

At the mid-point, it was still Kenseth and Busch at the top of the scoring pylon, but Gordon had rebounded to fifth with the help of a very quick pit stop. The No.24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet continued to march towards the leader, taking third place on lap 106.

Meanwhile, Busch got side-by-side with Kenseth as the No.2 Dodge stuck to the bottom of the track and grabbed the lead from Kenseth.

With clean air, Busch set a torrid pace and Kenseth couldn't keep up. By lap 125, Busch held a 2.657 second lead on Gordon, who had gotten underneath Kenseth for second.

Another round of green-flag pit stops and it was still Busch and Gordon showing the way. Busch's lead was 3.309 seconds with 60 laps remaining and still expanding. The margin was 5.431 seconds with just 35 laps to go.

Busch was in complete control, but there was still one more pit stop remaining. The leaders began to stop - first Vickers, then Kenseth. Gordon stopped with 34 to go and Busch shortly thereafter. Earnhardt Jr. overshot his pit and it cost him a number of positions, something he couldn't afford in his race for the "Chase."

With 25 laps to go, Busch's lead was 4.566 seconds on Johnson as Gordon fell to seventh after an extra long pit stop. But a debris caution flag set up a short shootout to the checkered flag.

The green flag dropped with 20 laps to go and Busch leading Gordon, Dave Blaney, Truex Jr. and Biffle. Hamlin and Johnson led a group that chose to get new rubber and they restarted sixth and seventh, respectively.

Busch got the jump on Gordon right at the start, while Truex Jr. beat Blaney for third. Fifteen laps to go and Busch's lead was 1.957 seconds over Truex Jr.. Hamlin and Johnson were also flying using their new tires to take third and fourth.

Busch still held more than one second as the laps dwindled to just 10. Then another caution flag as Kenseth got into the back of Gordon in turn four sending the No.24 spinning across the grass.

The race would restart with seven laps. Again Busch got a great jump. Johnson also got off well and he went down the backstretch side-by-side with Truex Jr. Truex Jr. fought him off and then took aim at Busch, who was a half second ahead of him.

A Biffle spin with two laps to go set up a green-white-checker finish. One more great start by Busch did it and he took his second win of the season. Busch led a race-high 92 laps.

Johnson, Kenseth and Hamlin completed the top-five.

In the "race-with-the-race" for the 12th and final playoff position, Busch holds a 163-point lead on Earnhardt Jr. and 171 on teammate Ryan Newman.

The next race is scheduled for Saturday night, August 25th at the Bristol Motor Speedway.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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