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07/24/2010 - Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ryan Braun drove in Rickie Weeks with the game-winning run in the ninth inning, as the Milwaukee Brewers edged the Washington Nationals, 4-3, in the middle test of a three-game series.
Braun and Jim Edmonds each recorded a solo home run in Milwaukee's third straight win, which was credited to John Axford (6-1) despite his suffering his first blown save of the season.
After Adam Dunn's sacrifice fly tied it in the top of the ninth, Weeks reached on a one-out single off Drew Storen (2-2) in the bottom half. Joe Inglett took a payoff pitch off the plate to draw a walk, then Braun roped a line drive off the base of the left-field wall to bring in Weeks without a play at the plate.
Axford was perfect in 14 save chances coming in, but quickly loaded the bases on back-to-back singles and a perfectly-placed bunt down the third base line by pinch-hitter Nyjer Morgan.
Dunn came in to hit for Ivan Rodriguez and lofted a fly to short right-center that was caught by Carlos Gomez, whose throw home was not in time to nab Ryan Zimmerman.
Axford, appearing in his third game in as many nights, got out of the inning with the score tied by inducing a short flyout to right by pinch-hitter Wil Nieves and a harmless groundout by Alberto Gonzalez.
Manny Parra allowed two runs on four hits and three walks over a six-inning start for Milwaukee, while J.D. Martin lasted just 2 1/3 innings and gave up a run on three hits and three walks for Washington, which dropped the opener of this set, 7-5.
Braun's blast to right-center gave the Brewers a 1-0 lead in the first.
Despite failing to score with the bases loaded in the second and squandering a leadoff triple in the third, the hosts went up 2-0 in the fourth when Collin Balester served up a homer to Edmonds, who made a nice grab in the away half.
Parra faced the minimum through four frames, but walked Josh Willingham to open the fifth and yielded a single to Mike Morse. A flyout moved the lead runner up, and Ian Desmond hit a line drive that appeared to find the gap in right.
Edmonds, whose last of his eight Gold Gloves came in 2005, ranged over from center and made a diving catch. Morse was nearly at third when the catch was made, but Willingham scored before Morse was doubled off first.
Weeks was hit on the left ear flap of his helmet with a Balester pitch in the bottom half, but stayed in the game and was stranded on third.
Gonzalez singled leading off the sixth, and Roger Bernadina later brought him in with a sacrifice fly to left to tie the game. Parra left the bases full by striking out Morse.
Edmonds led off the bottom half with a single, moved to third on an Alcides Escobar base hit and scored when Jonathan Lucroy doubled off the center field wall. Edmonds then left the game with a tight right hamstring.
Game Notes
Balester had made 22 starts with Washington during the 2008-09 seasons but had spent the entire 2010 campaign in Triple-A Syracuse. The right-hander was recalled Saturday but is expected to be sent right back down, as Ross Detwiler is scheduled to be brought up from the minors to make Sunday's start opposite Dave Bush...Brewers outfielder Corey Hart sat out due to a right wrist injury he sustained during Friday's game...The Brewers have homered in 13 straight games...The Nationals have lost 12 straight one-run contests on the road and 11 of their last 13 overall at Miller Park.
<< Conrad's slam during eight-run eighth helps Braves cook Fish
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brooks Conrad hit his second career grand slam
during an eight-run eighth inning, as the Atlanta Braves rallied past the
Florida Marlins, 10-5, in the second test of a three-game set between these
two NL
<< Blue Jays edge Tigers, who lose Ordonez, Guillen
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jose Bautista knocked in two runs to back a
solid outing from Shaun Marcum as Toronto clipped Detroit, 3-2, in the second
of a four-game set from Comerica Park.
Vernon Wells drove in the other for the
<< Rays finally end long losing streak in Cleveland
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ben Zobrist's replay-reviewed three-run homer
began a stretch of six unanswered runs, and the Tampa Bay Rays finally snapped
their losing streak in Cleveland with a 6-3 win over the Indians.
Carlos Pena als
<< Young, Baker carry Twins over Orioles
Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Delmon Young went 4-for-4 with a two-run
homer to help back seven strong innings from Scott Baker, as the Minnesota
Twins beat the Baltimore Orioles, 7-2, in the continuation of a four-game set.
Bake
Padres rock Pirates in Matos' return >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Everth Cabrera and Oscar Salazar each drove
in two runs and Mat Latos was solid in his return from the disabled list, as
the San Diego Padres dominated the Pittsburgh Pirates, 9-2, in the second test
of a th
Uribe hits grand slam as Giants rout D-Backs >>
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Juan Uribe hit his fourth career grand slam and
Aubrey Huff stayed hot, helping the San Francisco Giants to a 10-4 rout of the
Arizona Diamondbacks.
In Friday's contest, Huff went 3-for-5 with two home runs
Giants sign LB Bulluck >>
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Giants have signed
veteran linebacker Keith Bulluck.
Per club policy, terms of the deal were not disclosed.
Bulluck, who was originally drafted 30th overall by the Titans in t
Angels top Rangers to break out of slide >>
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ervin Santana was on top of his game in eight
solid innings on the hill, as the LA Angels of Anaheim pulled out a much-
needed 6-2 win over the Texas Rangers in the third meeting of a four-game
series
LaDainian Tomlinson Favorite to be 2007 NFL MVP
With the first NFL preseason game less than two weeks away, it is time to start thinking about football once again at MySportsbook.com. Reigning NFL MVP LaDainian Tomlinson is currently the 5-1 co-favorite to win the award again alongside Super Bowl MVP Peyton Manning.
This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone after his all out assault on the record books last season. For those suffering from amnesia or were under a rock last football season, all L.T. did last season was set the NFL record for rushing touchdowns (28), total touchdowns (31) and total points scored (186) to go along with his 1815 rushing yards and 508 receiving yards. At 6-1, Tom Brady is next in line which isn’t surprising considering all of the firepower the Pats added over the off-season. With the addition of Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker; it would be quite difficult for Brady’s numbers not to improve from last years 3529 yards and 24 touchdowns. There appears to be some decent value in Drew Bees at 10-1 considering he probably would have won the award last year if it wasn’t for L.T.’s record breaking season.
There is no reason to think the Saints will come back to earth this season and playing in a weak NFC, they should have as good a shot as any to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. At 15-1, Donovan McNabb could also be worth a look. Remember, many felt he was the MVP of the first half of the season before going down with a season ending injury. Reportedly, he is in great shape and well ahead of schedule to return to form. Also, he could have some added motivation to put up big numbers this season with the Eagles using their first pick in the draft on McNabb’s future successor Kevin Kolb.
Be sure to log on to MySportsbook.com to check out the complete odds for NFL MVP as well as all of the new football related futures. With the popularity of NFL futures, these betting lines will be sure to change as the money comes in; get the early sports lines now.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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