Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn has field of nine

Horseracing Betting Lines

04/07/2010 - Hot Springs, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rebel Stakes runner-up Noble's Promise tops a field of nine Kentucky Derby hopefuls for Saturday's $1 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. The 1 1/8-mile race has a post-time of 5:45 p.m. (et).

Owned by Chasing Dreams Racing, the colt will start from post three with Robby Albarado returning to ride. Noble's Promise is trained by Ken McPeek and is 2-1 in the morning-line.

"I'm pretty sure that this horse can handle running here," said assistant trainer Walter Blum, Jr., "then back in the (Kentucky) Derby in three weeks. He's a very tough horse. He had a nick on his ankle after winning the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland. But it didn't really stop him before the Breeders' Cup, where he was third."

Noble's Promise has won three of seven career starts for $793,500. In 2008 he won the Fitz Dixon Stakes at Presque Isle Downs and Keeneland's Breeders' Futurity Stakes. Following his third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile he was second in the CashCall Futurity to Lookin At Luck who won the Rebel Stakes.

Blum, who was the regular exercise rider for 2008 Kentucky Derby champ Big Brown, favorably compares the two colts.

"He's just as good, if not better," Blum said of Noble's Promise. "He doesn't have the bad feet that Big Brown had, but that's what made him special, in that he overcame so much. He (Big Brown) was better suited for the turf, so that made his wins on the dirt special, too. Noble can run on grass, poly or dirt. He could probably run over broken glass."

Super Saver, the third-place finisher in the Tampa Bay Derby, has been made the 9-5 favorite for the 74th Arkansas Derby. The three-year-old colt will start from the inside post with Calvin Borel riding.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Super Saver is owned by WinStar Farm. The colt was making his 2010 debut in the Tampa Bay Derby where he was the 3-2 favorite. After setting the early pace he faded down the stretch to finish behind Odysseus and Schoolyard Dreams.

Last year he won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs after finishing fourth at Belmont Park in the Champagne. Super Saver has earned $201,232 in five career starts with two wins.

Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas sends out Dublin in the Arkansas Derby. Third in the Rebel, Dublin will break from post two with Terry Thompson in the saddle. The chestnut colt is the third choice at 7-2.

Owned by Robert Baker and William Mack, Dublin began the year by finishing second to Conveyance in Oaklawn's Southwest Stakes. The colt has earned $308,623 with two wins in seven starts. His only stakes victory was the Hopeful at Saratoga last September.

Here is the complete field for the Arkansas Derby in post position order: Super Saver, Calvin Borel, 9-5; Dublin, Terry Thompson, 7-2; Noble's Promise, Robby Albarado, 2-1: Northern Giant, Victor Espinoza, 8-1; Uh Oh Bango, Shaun Bridgmohan, 15-1; New Madrid, Abel Castellano, Jr., 20-1; Berberis, Aaron Gryder, 30-1; Line of David, Jon Court, 15-1 and Pulsion, Corey Nakatani, 15-1.

The Arkansas Derby will be televised on NBC along with the Blue Grass Stakes from Keeneland.

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What Is the Point Spread?

What are Sports Betting Point Spreads?

In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.

Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched – meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).

If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and online sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).

Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team – so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England. But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.

How to Read Point Spreads

New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)

In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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